BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Centre for Mathematical Sciences - ECPv5.3.1.1//NONSGML v1.0//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-WR-CALNAME:Centre for Mathematical Sciences
X-ORIGINAL-URL:http://math-sciences.org
X-WR-CALDESC:Events for Centre for Mathematical Sciences
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:UTC
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
TZNAME:UTC
DTSTART:20140101T000000
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC:20140225T140000
DTEND;TZID=UTC:20140225T150000
DTSTAMP:20210128T120525
CREATED:20151212T222325Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20151212T222419Z
UID:526-1393336800-1393340400@math-sciences.org
SUMMARY:Adrian Raftery
DESCRIPTION:Joint ExIStA-RSS South West Local Group Meeting\nTitle: “Forecasting: Recent Developments in Bayesian Model Averaging” \nAbstract: Probabilistic weather forecasting consists of finding a joint probability distribution for future weather quantities or events. This is often done using an ensemble of forecasts\, obtained by perturbing the inputs to a numerical weather prediction model (initial conditions\, physics parameters) in various ways\, and running the model for each perturbed set of inputs. The spread of the ensemble is often related to the absolute forecast error\, but ensemble forecasts tend to be uncalibrated\, particularly for surface quantities. It is widely accepted that statistical postprocessing of ensembles improves the quality of the probabilistic forecast. I will review Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)\, a way of doing this that models the predictive distribution conditionally on the ensemble by a finite mixture model. I will outline some recent developments of BMA for weather forecasting\, including to wind speed\, wind direction\, wind vectors\, visibility\, functionals of weather fields and multivariate weather quantities. I will also show how BMA can be applied to multimodel ensembles and ensembles in which subsets of members are exchangeable. Illustrative probabilistic forecasts are available in real time at www.probcast.washington.edu\, and the R packages ensembleBMA and ProbForecastGOP are available to implement the methods.
URL:http://math-sciences.org/event/adrian-raftery/
CATEGORIES:Seminars,Statistics and Data Science
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR